About Leovance Markets

Leovance Markets is an independent research letter on rates, equities, commodities and the technology capital cycle. It publishes two to four pieces a week, sometimes more in earnings season, and is written entirely by me, Leo Vance. There is no podcast, no model portfolio, no premium tier and no sponsored content. The publication is supported entirely by readers who pass it on to colleagues.

This page describes how it is written and what to expect from it.

What this is

A weekly cadence of three things:

1. One macro note. Usually Monday. Rates, central banks, growth and inflation prints, fiscal — read against the backdrop of where positioning and the volatility surface are pointing. The discipline is to identify what could change the path of long-end yields in the next 8 to 12 weeks, because that path tends to determine the path of most other asset prices.
2. One earnings or sector note. Usually Wednesday. Pre-print bar checks during reporting seasons, post-print read-throughs the rest of the time. Coverage tilts toward US large-cap technology and the supplier ecosystem (semiconductors, power, cooling, real estate) because that is where my edge is, but the publication has views on financials, energy and consumer when the setup is interesting.
3. One flow or positioning note. Usually Friday. ETF flows, futures positioning, options skew, dealer gamma, what the prime-broker data is saying about the long-short book. Less prescriptive than the macro and equity notes — more about reading the tape.

Occasional ad-hoc notes between these when an event warrants — a Fed surprise, a major guidance reset, a vol spike worth diagnosing.

What this is not

It is not a stock-tipping service. There are no buy lists. When I name a stock, I will tell you why I think the setup is what it is, what would change my mind, and what timeframe I'm thinking on. You will rarely see a 12-month price target because I do not believe in mine and you should not believe in anyone else's.

It is not a generalised "market commentary" feed. There is no daily summary of what the indices did. There are plenty of free wires for that. The publication's job is to do work you would otherwise have to do yourself: thread together a Treasury auction, a Vice Chair speech, an industry conference, a Q1 print and a positioning extreme into a single readable thesis.

It is not a contrarian publication for the sake of being contrarian. There are weeks where the consensus is right. There are weeks where it is not. The job is to know which.

How the publication works

Three principles guide every piece:

Specificity over generality. A note will quote dates, basis points, ticker, percentage of revenue, ratio. A note will not contain the phrases "in today's environment" or "moving forward." If a number can be checked, it is named. If a source can be linked, it is linked.

Show the disconfirming case. Every thesis closes with what would force me to revise it. If I cannot describe the conditions under which I would change my mind, I do not yet have a thesis — I have a feeling.

Write for an audience that already understands the basics. I will not re-explain what a put/call ratio is in a note about put/call ratios. Beginners can read the primer notes and investment-strategies section. Everywhere else, assume the reader has spent time on a trading desk, in a finance team, or running a portfolio.

About me

I have spent most of the last fifteen years on the buy side, covering US large-cap technology in two different multi-manager platforms. I have also done two stints in research — one sell-side at a European bank, one independent. Leovance Markets is the publication I always wished I could send to my clients without the compliance review. Now I can.

I write from London. The publication's "edition of record" timestamps are BST; markets references default to US conventions unless flagged otherwise.

How to read this

The fastest path through the archive:

• The 10-year is the only chart that matters this week — the kind of macro note that runs Monday.
• Q1 2026 Mag-7 preview — the kind of pre-earnings note that runs in season.
• ETF flows decoded — the kind of flow note that runs Friday.
• The capex supercycle in one chart — the kind of structural piece that gets a longer runway.

A free morning email — The Morning Tape — ships at 06:30 BST weekdays. It is five minutes long and has no advertising. The signup form is on the homepage sidebar.

Disclosures and disclaimers

I trade a personal account. Any name discussed in these pages may be owned by me. I do not disclose individual position sizes. I do not accept payment from companies covered. I do not run client money, manage anyone's portfolio or provide investment advice. Nothing on this website is investment advice. You should not treat it as such.

If you are looking for an investment adviser, find a regulated one in your jurisdiction. If you are looking for someone to think out loud about markets in a way that respects your time and intelligence, you are in the right place.

— Leo Vance, London, 2026