Independent research on rates, equities, commodities and the technology cycle. By Leo Vance.
Three Fed speakers, a $58bn auction and the cleanest core-PCE print of the cycle. The path of long-end yields will decide whether the equity rotation has more room — or has already overstayed its welcome.
Buyside whisper numbers are running ~3% above sell-side consensus on the four names that still have positive operating leverage. The other three are a different story.
Forget the Reddit feed. The April creation data from BlackRock, Vanguard and Invesco tells a different story — heavy concentration in three sleeves, capitulation in a fourth.
| Date | Section | Headline | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 May | Rates | Why the 10-year is the only chart that matters this week | us-ratesfed |
| 27 May | Equity | The capex supercycle in one chart | capexhyperscalers |
| 27 May | macro | Macro Signals 101: Rates, Jobs and the Money Supply | macroeconomics |
| 26 May | Equity | Reading the put/call ratio at extremes | sentimentoptions |
| 26 May | Equity | Q1 2026 Mag-7 preview: where the bar is set, and where it slips | earningsmag-7 |
| 25 May | Flows | ETF flows decoded: where retail money actually went in April | etfflows |
| 24 May | Macro | The dollar's quiet rally has done more work than the Fed has | usdfx |
| 22 May | Markets | Personal Finance Foundations for Tech Professionals | |
| 22 May | Markets | Investment Strategies: From Diversification to Dollar-Cost Averaging | |
| 22 May | Rates | The BoJ end-game nobody is hedging | bojjgb |
Three Fed speakers, a $58bn auction and the cleanest core-PCE print of the cycle. The path of long-end yields will decide whether the equity rotation has more room — or has already overstayed its welcome.
The four hyperscalers will spend $293bn on property, plant and equipment in 2026 — more than the entire upstream oil & gas industry. The chart that explains this cycle, and the three companies that hold the receipts.
The CBOE equity put/call ratio printed 0.43 on Friday — the lowest reading since November 2024. Here is what the historical record says about what happens next, and why the index version is telling a different story.
Buyside whisper numbers are running ~3% above sell-side consensus on the four Mag-7 names that still have positive operating leverage. The other three are a different story.
The April creation data from BlackRock, Vanguard and Invesco tells a different story to the social-media tape — heavy concentration in three sleeves, capitulation in a fourth.
DXY is up 2.1% in three weeks while almost no one is talking about it. That move has tightened US financial conditions roughly as much as a 35bp rate hike, and the second-order effects are starting to show up in the data.
The Bank of Japan is the last central bank still buying duration. When that bid finally leaves the long end of the JGB curve, everything with a Japanese sponsor — from US Treasuries to French OATs to leveraged credit — gets repriced. The cleanest map of the exposure.